I consider myself a poor decision-maker and have been constantly looking for ways to improve this aspect of my life. Years ago, I read the book ‘How to fail at almost everything and still win big’, and I realized that I still use the decision-making method from it.
The concept is simple: we have only five ways to filter and validate the data our brains receive to make decisions. Here they are, along with their strengths and weaknesses:
1️⃣ Personal experience — this is the least costly method for our brains; we immediately form opinions based on our own experiences. However, the issue is the high level of subjectivity. We often lack relevant experience when encountering new situations.
2️⃣ The experience of people we know — this method isn't costly either. We often rely on the advice of friends and trusted people. However, this is not a reliable method because friends rarely bear responsibility if their experience leads you astray.
3️⃣ Experts — this is a more serious approach, especially if you find an expert with experience in a specific area of interest. The problem is that experts often work for money, not truth. Sometimes, they may overstate their expertise or sound more convincing than they actually are.
4️⃣ Scientific studies — this is a great way to validate data, but it requires more mental effort. The challenge is that we often rely on studies that seem related but aren't directly applicable. As we know, correlation is not causation, so we need to be careful with the data we use.
5️⃣ Common sense and pattern recognition — this is a powerful decision-making tool, often working as a blend of general knowledge and intuition. The downside is that if you haven't seen enough patterns or have personal biases, you might make mistakes with full confidence.
So, how do you use these methods?
By understanding their strengths and limitations:
Personal experience is used daily, but it holds little power. Don’t rely solely on it when making important decisions.
The experience of friends may offer emotional support, but it's often not useful (or even garbage), unless your friends are experts in the specific area you're dealing with.
Experts are invaluable in most cases. Always seek out an expert before making crucial decisions.
Scientific studies require significant mental effort and time, so they are often substituted by expert advice in the field.
Pattern recognition works almost like magic, but only if you’ve observed many patterns over time in your life. If you haven’t, it’s better to find an expert with strong pattern recognition skills.
Before making any decision, ensure you've used at least two methods. For less important decisions, methods 1 + 2 are usually sufficient.
For critical decisions, combine methods like 3 + 4, 3 + 5, or 4 + 5.